Behind the Headline - R Star in Three Acts

There has been a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety pertaining to the number of Fed rate hikes remaining now that they have completed eight 25bp hikes since December 2015. We took recent public...


Behind the Headline: Q1 GDP Lower & March Inflation Higher

  On April 27th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance estimate” for the 2018 Q1 real GDP[1] at 2.3%. The "second" estimate, based on more complete data, is expected on...


Behind the Headline - October CPI

On November 15, 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Consumer Price Index showing the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1% in October on a seasonally...


Behind the Headline - US GDP Surprising at 3 percent

On October 27th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate for the 2017 Q3 real GDP[1] and it came in at 3.0% following a revised 3.1% for the second quarter. If the 4th...


Behind the Headline: Is US GDP Stuck in the Low Gear?

The second estimate of the 2017 Q2 real GDP was revised up from 2.6% to 3.0% last month that brought the first half of the year from 1.9% to 2.1% annualized rate.  Market participants and observers...


Behind the Headline - US GDP 2017 Q2 2nd Estimate

On August 30, 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Second Estimate for the U.S. second quarter real GDP[1].  Compared to the Advance Estimate of 2.6%, it is revised up to 3.0%.  For...


Behind the Headline - Phillips Curve

As the U.S. unemployment (U3) rate slowly approaches 4% (not seen since December 2000 at 3.9% or November 1968 at 3.4%) and with the addition of another 209,000 jobs in July 2017, central bankers and...


Behind the Headline: 2017 Q2 GDP

On July 28, 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Advance Estimate for the U.S. second quarter GDP[1].  Compared to the first quarter of (revised) 1.2% real GDP rate, the 2.6% is a...